Posts Tagged ‘risk mitigation’

Life does not survive to reproduce; rather, it reproduces because survival must end

September 16, 2026

Introduction:

An off-shoot idea I have had for a long time is that the most primal characteristic of being alive seems to be the drive to survive and remain alive. This is probably even more primitive than the drive to reproduce which, I think, makes more sense as a risk mitigation action for the unavoidable risk of not surviving. This little essay expands on that theme.


I have come to realise that for living things (for life), it is survival which is primal and it is reproduction which follows only as a mitigation for the risk of mortality.

If we strip biology down to its first principles, traditional evolutionary theory asks us to accept a strange inversion: that reproduction is the ultimate engine of life, and survival is merely a clumsy mechanism organisms use to stick around long enough to pass on their genes. But when we examine the actual physics of living systems, this hierarchy reverses. The most primal, non-negotiable characteristic of life is not the drive to multiply. Instead, it is the fierce, unyielding drive to be, to remain intact. If a cell did not age and die of itself and, in principle, was immortal, reproduction would be both unnecessary and unsustainable.

Before a system can have the luxury of looking outward and indulging in replication, it must first establish an internal boundary against the relentless pull of not-being, of not surviving, of dying. This drive for continuing to be, for self-generation and self-maintenance is the core imperative of any living system. (The word autopoiesis was invented in the 1970s to describe this but I dislike its artificiality and do not see that it adds any great value). From single-celled bacteria avoiding or evading what they detect as chemical toxins, to complex organisms exhibiting flight or fight behaviour when faced by physical threat, the primary directive is always self-preservation. Living is always in hope, in the belief that even with the last breath that there is another breath to come. Life fights tooth and nail simply to continue to be. If any system lacked this primal will to maintain its own structural integrity against non-existence, it would dissolve before reproduction even entered the equation.

Why, then, does reproduction exist at all? If survival is the ultimate goal, a successful organism would logically lock into a permanent state of just necessary sufficiency, of bare self-preservation. Without inherent aging the organism would be immortal. Yet, every individual biological organism, without exception, is mortal. Empiricism tells us that immortality has never been observed. In the war against time and entropy and environmental friction, individual mortality is guaranteed and survival, inevitably and always, ends.

This is where the true nature of reproduction is revealed. It is not the primary goal, but actually a quite brilliant, insurance policy. It is mitigation for the risk of not surviving. Because an individual organism cannot permanently defeat dying, life invents replication as a structural workaround. It is a hedge against extinction where specific individuality is sacrificed. It is a mechanism which maintains a string of individuals but no single one. It employs the copying of software onto a fresh hardware drive because the original hardware will inevitably fail.

It is a masterpiece of elegance in that this insurance policy is dynamically tuned by a feedback loop between risk of imminent dying and reproductive output. Not for each individual but averaged across many individuals. If the chance of surviving another year is low, investing energy into long-term bodily maintenance (longevity) is a wasted bet. The insurance policy must pay out immediately. This is why small rodents or insects have short lifespans and massive, rapid litters. If the baseline survival rate is high, the “insurance policy” doesn’t need urgency or front-loading. The organism can afford to stick around, protect its investment, and nurture its offspring over a longer, more stable timeline. This is why large mammals, elephants, whales, and humans feature long lifespans and slow, deliberate reproduction. When an organism faces high extrinsic mortality, where harsh pressures make individual survival statistically unlikely, the system triggers an emergency response, accelerating reproduction and shortening focus at the expense of longevity. Conversely, when stable conditions allow for extended survival, life dials back reproduction, trading sheer volume for long-term somatic maintenance and quality control. The terms of the policy adapt, it seems, directly to the threat of not being.

My postulation is that reproduction comes downstream of survival. Framing reproduction as a risk-mitigation strategy allows us, I think, to change how we view the drivers of living systems. It moves us away, I believe, from a purely gene-centric utility model and instead, sets life in a deeper, more fundamental, existential struggle. It is the difference between living and being inert. Life is the aspiration of an organized system to continue to be against the void of non-existence. It is this aspiration manifested which – in my view –  we call the mystery that separates the living from the inert.

Life does not survive to reproduce; rather, it reproduces because it is certain that survival must end.


 

Airbus vs. Boeing: or a tale of the marketing of delays and engine problems

November 26, 2010

For large, complex, expensive, high-technology products (airplanes, turbines, power plants or ships for example) it is usually not worth indulging in too much negative marketing based on a competitor’s technical difficulties. Early technical difficulties and “teething” problems are common and when a competitor has difficulties it usually leads to some feeling of satisfaction but it is tempered by the knowledge that one could easily suffer similar difficulties. So when GE experiences some problem with its gas turbines or Areva has delays in its nuclear plants there will never be an overt, negative marketing campaign by Siemens against GE or by Westinghouse against Areva.

File:Airbus A380.jpg

A380: image wikipedia

And this is the current situation between the Airbus A380 and Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner. The A380 had its share of delays and was over 2 years late in coming into service. Right now the troubles that Rolls Royce are having with their Trent 900 engines is not helping the A380 image. (There are only two engines available for the A380 but it is noteworthy that the General Electric / Pratt & Whitney Alliance which manufacture the GP7200 engine which competes with the Trent 900 are not indulging in any overt negative marketing). The “Rolls Royce effect” for Airbus is currently negative because of the Trent 900 issues but it is indirectly mitigated by the reports of delays in developing the Trent 1000 which is one of the engines for Boeing’s 787.

File:Boeing 787first flight.jpg

B787 First flight: image Wikipedia

As Airbus fights to get airlines to accept the A380 their “best friend” strangely is the delays to the B787 Dreamliner program. The Dreamliner has been further delayed by an electrical system fault which caused a fire on a test flight in early November. For an airline the decision of choosing between Boeing and Airbus has become not one of comparing the advantages each has to offer but instead one of judging the risk exposure that a choice may bring. It becomes a comparison of potential “downsides” and risk mitigation possibilities rather than selecting between potential “upsides”.

For Airbus and Boeing, their sales processes now have to emphasise the risk mitigation available with their products rather than promoting all the advantages their products have to offer. This is unusual for a “sales process” but nothing new in the history of marketing of technologically new products. But it is not so easy for corporations, their salesmen and for sales processes to shift from promoting advantages to the much more difficult task of showing that the risks (whether of delay or of technical difficulties) they pose are less than that of the competitor. Even in terms of financing, the usual offers of financing and leasing packages for the customer must now additionally address the mitigation of financial and consequential exposures in the event that a risk materialises. When a single A380 costs around $320 million, a Boeing 747-400 about $250 million and a Dreamliner has a price tag of $150 -200 million, then downtime and delays have enormous financial consequences for the customer. Marketing strategy for new products in the face of heightened risk perceptions is quite different to the marketing of “tried and tested” products. But this is a fascinating marketing challenge!

The latest reports of delays to the Dreamliner has led to harsh words about Boeing from a potential customer. CityAM reports:

QATAR Airways has threatened to hand extra business to European aircraft giant Airbus after attacking Boeing over problems with its new 787 Dreamliner. Chief executive Akbar Al Baker said the airline was considering increasing its order for five Airbus A380 super-jumbo planes and might order a re-engined version of the A320 single-aisle jetliner. He did not say how many more A380s it might order.

Qatar has expanded its fleet from four to 94 aircraft in 13 years and has orders for 200 more from Airbus and its US rival Boeing worth $40bn, including 30 Dreamliners. Al Baker said Boeing had “failed” in developing its 787 Dreamliner, which is expected to suffer further delays following a fire on a test flight.

Boeing’s development of the carbon-composite 787 is running around three years late and brokers expect a further delay as it addresses the cause of a fire which led to the test flight being grounded two weeks ago.

But I would expect that there is a strong element of price negotiation in Qatar Airways’ statement!