Archive for the ‘India’ Category

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »

Indian monsoon sets in, risk for deficiency remains but so far, so good

June 8, 2015

The long range forecast was revised a few weeks ago and there is a risk that this year’s monsoon may be somewhat deficient. But the onset has not been much delayed and the first week’s rainfall is slightly above “normal. The second LRF cast a shadow over the markets when it was announced. But the pessimism may have been overdone.

2nd stage Long Range Forecast:

  • Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2015 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be deficient (<90% of LPA).
  • Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 88% of the long period average with a model error of ±4%.
  • Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 85% of LPA over North-West India, 90% of LPA over Central India, 92% of LPA over South Peninsula and 90% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
  • The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 92% of its LPA during July and 90% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 %.

The monsoon onset was just a couple of days “late” compared to the forecast date (which is in itself always a warning sign). Furthermore, this year could be an El Nino (albeit weak El Nino) year which could depress rainfall levels. One week into the 13 week monsoon season, however, rainfall is running at 4% above the long term average.

monsoon advance June 6th 2015

monsoon advance June 6th 2015

The northern and western ends of the front are progressing well but the central section is well behind its “normal” advance. In terms of rainfall distribution the north-east and the south which usually receive the highest rainfall by this time are running slightly ahead of normal. The central and north-west region receive low levels of rainfall in  this period but the north-west is running 44% above normal while the central regions are deficient and running at -20%.

rainfall till 6th June 2015

The warnings about potential deficiency has led to the government planning measures for those farmers who are not “covered” by irrigation networks and are solely dependent upon rainfall.

But, so far, so good.

Tags:, ,
Posted in Climate, India | Comments Off on Indian monsoon sets in, risk for deficiency remains but so far, so good

Sweden is 1.5 times more important to India than Belarus

June 4, 2015

The only item to make headlines in the Swedish newspapers regarding the Indian President’s State Visit to Sweden was the accident his motorcade had on a roundabout on the last day of his visit. Nothing else was worth reporting in the Swedish media. The Indian media were not much more interested. Which is a commentary on the lack of real content.

In any event after his 3 day visit to Sweden Pranab Mukherjee went off for a 2 day jaunt to Belarus.

Maybe that is the real message. Sweden is 1.5 times more important to India than Belarus. And going by column-inches, India is 1% as important to Sweden as FIFA.

President Pranab Mukherjee with his counterpart from Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko inspecting the guard of honour during his ceremonial reception at Palace of Independence in Minsk, Belarus.

President Pranab Mukherjee with his counterpart from Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko inspecting the guard of honour during his ceremonial reception at Palace of Independence in Minsk, Belarus. photo PTI via The Hindu

 

 

Tags:
Posted in Behaviour, India, Politics, Sweden | Comments Off on Sweden is 1.5 times more important to India than Belarus

Indian President’s State Visit to Sweden receives attention finally (for an accident at a roundabout)

June 2, 2015

This is a remarkably unremarkable State Visit.

On the last day of the President’s visit to Sweden, he finally got some attention. I’m glad that apparently nobody was seriously injured – though this has till to be confirmed. But I do question how a Presidential convoy, supposedly with a police escort, came to be involved in an accident. Two cars of the motorcade are said to have collided with two other vehicles. Apparently six were injured and two had to be taken to hospital in an ambulance.

There is a whiff of either bad planning or some incompetence in the air. The host nation is, of course, responsible for the well being of a visiting Head of State. The visit has been largely soporific and perhaps the general lethargy infected the car drivers as well.

It now seems that all 4 cars in the collision were from within the motorcade itself! They were the last 4 cars of the 15 car motorcade. Nine people were injured but there were no serious injuries.

How frightful! How embarrassing!

It looks like somebody braked pretty hard and a multiple shunt occurred. Some of the cars look like complete write-offs. I wonder if the air-bags were activated? Or perhaps they were made by Takata?

Krock-RoyalKortege1000

via Dagens Nyheter Foto:Allover

 

 

Swedish Radio:

At least four people have been injured when four cars in the Indian president’s motorcade drove into Uppsala and crashed in a roundabout. They have been taken to hospital.

“It is not the President who is injured, but I have no information on who the injured are”, said Tommy Karlsson, duty officer at Uppsala police, to TT.

The alarm came in at 16:36. President Shri Pranab Mukherjee was coming to Uppsala University when the accident occurred. The procession included also Crown Princess Victoria and Prince Daniel, but they escaped injury according to the Royal Court.

The visit to the university went on at 1700 as planned.

How the accident happened is unclear. According to Tommy Carlsson, the police had stopped other traffic so that the procession had a free passage.

“The incident is very unusual”, he notes.

 

Tags:,
Posted in India, Politics, Sweden | 1 Comment »

2nd day of Indian President’s invisible visit to Sweden wasted on “sustainable”

June 2, 2015

The second day of the President’s State Visit to Sweden was about as invisible in the Swedish (and Indian) media as the first. The theme of the day was “sustainable development of towns and cities” which is one of these “politically correct” but quite meaningless themes where the word “sustainable” is added for the sake of form. India is not immune to the disease of fashionable phrases and is trying to develop about 100 “smart” cities where “smart” like “sustainable” is a meaningless term. Nothing labelled “sustainable” or “smart” has any value if it is not first economically viable. Most projects which are labelled “sustainable” usually include the term only because it makes getting funding so much easier. More often than not, the use of such fashionable, politically correct descriptors is a certain indicator that the project is not economically viable.

It would have been far better if instead of “sustainability nonsense” the visit of the President could have focused on how Swedish technology and investment could assist development and be made relevant for Indian conditions – and always with the proviso that the development had to be economically viable.

Sweden is one of many European countries which is pouring money down the black hole of so-called “sustainable” projects which are not economically viable. The Swedish Minister for Housing and Urban Development is Mehmet Kaplan, from the Green Party. He is something of a specialist at proposing “sustainable” but uneconomic projects. (I am not sure if the Indian Ambassador had done her homework and had informed the President that Kaplan is also the person who thought that radicalised Swedes who went to join IS could be compared to Swedish-Finn patriots returning to Finland to fight against the Russians. India has a particular problem with radicalised Muslim youth who are fodder for the Pakistan-based terrorist groups operating in Kashmir.)

From the Royal Court:

…. The president’s second day in Sweden began in Parliament and a meeting with President Urban Ahlin. Subsequently, Prime Minister Stephen Löfven received him for talks at Rosenbad. Topics discussed included cooperation between Sweden and India and the prospects for increased exchange of trade and science.

The King and Queen, The Crown Princess and the President then participated in a seminar on sustainable urban development, which took place at Stockholm City Hall. Gunnar Söderholm, head of Stockholm’s environmental management made a presentation entitled Sustainable Stockholm.  Stockholm city thenwere hosts for the  lunch at the city hall.

The afternoon program continued on the theme of sustainable urban development with a trip to Hammarby Sjöstad. The day ended with the King and Queen’s gala dinner for the President.

There seem to be very few interesting pictures from yesterday.

Sofia Hellqvist, Prins Carl Philip, Drottningen, Indiens president Shri Pranab Mukherjee, Kungen, Kronprinsessan och Prins Daniel. Foto: Janerik Henriksson/TT

Sofia Hellqvist, Prince Carl Philip, Queen Sylvia, Pranab Mukherjee, The King, Crown Princess Victoria and Prince Daniel. Photo: Janerik Henriksson/TT

Lunch at Stockholm City Hall, 1 juni 2015. Photo Kungahuset.se

Today is the last day of Pranab Mukherjee’s State Visit.

Tags:, ,
Posted in Business, India, Politics, Sweden | Comments Off on 2nd day of Indian President’s invisible visit to Sweden wasted on “sustainable”

Indian President begins (almost invisible) State Visit to Sweden

May 31, 2015

It is the first ever state visit by an Indian Head of State to Sweden. Pranab Mukherjee arrived in Sweden today. The visit could actually be of some value for bilateral trade which is at an abysmally low level. But the media interest in India and in Sweden is very low. The remarkably low level of bilateral trade certainly is one reason as to why this State Visit is almost “invisible” in the media. Of course the Indian Ambassador to Sweden is jointly for Sweden and Latvia – which downgrade must be one of the Indian Foreign Ministry’s more stupid decisions.

  • India exports just $700-800 million to Sweden out of a total export of about $320 billion. Sweden thus absorbs less than 0.25% of Indian exports.
  • Sweden exports only $1.9 billion to India out of a total exports of about $182 billion and thus India absorbs only around 1% of Sweden’s exports.
  • India exports about $50 billion into the EU every year and absorbs about $57 billion from the EU.

Considering that India’s current GDP growth is running at about 7.3%, it is quite surprising to me that the bilateral trade between India and Sweden should be so low. It has long been my view that there are many, many opportunities but India is not a popular destination for impatient young Swedish “entrepreneurs”. Exports from Sweden to India could exceed $5 billion per year but that needs a change of attitude. My own opinion is that after the Bofors affaire (now almost 25 years ago), many Swedish companies have just given up and have not had the nerve or the patience to try again.

For Indian business, Sweden is a little off the beaten track and exports which are booming into mainstream EU countries, have just not taken off in Sweden. Just as with their Swedish counterparts, Indian businessmen have not had the time or the patience to invest into selling their goods into Sweden. India could easily double or treble exports to Sweden but that will not happen if visiting Sweden is just a reluctant day trip while in London or Frankfurt.

In any event Pranab Mukherjee’s State Visit is not getting very much media coverage in Sweden or in India. However the Royal Court is providing a full coverage of his 3 day visit. (The Indian Embassy is rather slow in providing news and pictures).

Vid ankomsten till Arlanda. Foto: Sören Andersson/TT

Mukherjee being greeted by Crown Princess Victoria on his arrival at Arlanda. Foto: Sören Andersson/TT

Kungaparet och Indiens president Shri Pranab Mukherjee färdades i en beriden kortege som gick från Hovstallet via Kungsträdgården och Norrbro till Slottet. Foto: Kungahuset.se

The King and Queen accompanying the President of India Shri Pranab Mukherjee in a mounted procession from the Royal Mews through Kungsträdgården and the North Bridge to the Royal palace. Photo: Kungahuset.se

Sofia Hellqvist, Prince Carl Philip, The Queen, the President Shri Pranab Mukherjee, The King, Crown Princess Victoria and Prince Daniel. Photo: Kungahuset.se

More pictures can be downloaded at the press room of the Royal Court.

Tags:, ,
Posted in Behaviour, India, Politics, Sweden | Comments Off on Indian President begins (almost invisible) State Visit to Sweden

Dreadful Swedish interview of President causes upset in India

May 27, 2015

I have posted earlier about the dreadful interview conducted by the Editor-in Chief of Dagens Nyheter, Peter Wolodarski, with President Pranab Mukherjee in advance of the latter’s State visit to Sweden at the end of this week. It was not quite incompetent but it was pretty bad in that the interviewer’s own preconceptions, misconceptions and “political correctness” were all on display. Of course Pranab Mukherjee was quite inept as well and kept referring to the Swiss instead of to the Swedish. But the President did manage to resist all the words that Wolodarski tried to put into his mouth regarding the Bofors affair. And Wolodarski’s condescension to a Head of State is both embarrassing and contemptible.

The interview seems to have caused some upset in India and there is now a threat in the air to cancel/postpone the first ever State visit of an Indian Head of State to Sweden. The main stream media in Sweden – in spite of their quite pathetic and slavish following of political correctness – are usually quite competent but their ethical standards are not of the highest. Wolodarski’s interview was particularly cringe-worthy.

The Indian Ambassador writes to Wolodarski and accuses him of being unprofessional, unethical, condescending, misleading, patronising and flippant. Maybe Wolodarski did not lie, but if the Ambassador is correct, he was certainly shading the truth when he told the Ambassador that his readers were not interested in Bofors which then became his lead-in to his sensationalised story.

But my real quarrel with Wolodarski is that he was thoroughly unprofessional.

Indian Embassy letter

Of course the fault also lies with the Ambassador or whoever else organised the interview. They should have known better than to trust or rely on any journalist – especially since Swedish journalists have no concept of anything being “off the record”.

Tags:, , ,
Posted in Behaviour, Ethics, India, Media, Sweden | Comments Off on Dreadful Swedish interview of President causes upset in India

President of India has difficulty distinguishing between Swiss and Swedish

May 24, 2015

Pranab Mukherjee, the President of India is visiting Sweden next week, the first ever State visit by an Indian Head of State. There have been two Prime Ministerial visits; Nehru in 1957 and Rajiv Gandhi in 1988. In preparation he was interviewed “in depth” by the Editor-in-Chief of Dagens Nyheter, Peter Wolodarski. The English version of the interview is here.

But there was very little depth to the interview – either in the questions or in Mukerjee’s parrotting of the “official line”. The interviewer was not incompetent precisely, but none of his questions were particularly insightful and some of his questions were considerably less than intelligent.

Imagine asking a serving Head of State what he thinks about another serving Head of State, “You’ve met President Putin several times. How would you describe him?” Would he have thought to ask the Swedish King what he though of Prince Charles, I wonder. Or the profundity on display in his question “Is the Chinese one-party system more effective (than Indian democracy)?” On Bofors, the interviewer tries to get Mukherjee to claim that it was all a “media scandal” but does not quite succeed. The interviewer is of course keen to display his own political correctness for his readers with “What is the most important thing that can be done to strengthen the position of women in India?” The interviewer’s questions regarding why there is a higher rate of female foetuses being aborted in India (and I have written before about the 2,000 abortions of female foetuses every day), seem to suggest that he is asking how the rate of abortion of male foetuses can be increased, as if a higher total rate of abortion is probably a good thing. (Of course Sweden today has abortion on demand and abortion rates today are at the same level as infant mortality rates of 300 years ago). The interviewer dwells on the Nirbhaya, Delhi rape case and tries to get the President to admit to some institutional or ingrained social failing rather than that it was just an isolated and aberrant case. Mukerjee asserts that extreme poverty can be eliminated with 10 years of growth at 8-9%, which the interviewer takes leave to doubt.

Photograph: Lars Lindqvist via Dagens Nyheter

The interviewer’s questions actually reflect “political correctness” (the Swedish version) and his own preconceptions much more than eliciting anything insightful. Of course the readers of Dagens Nyheter will probably be very pleased to get the incredible revelation that Sweden has a population of 9 million to India’s 1.2 billion. I think he only insults the intelligence of his readers while displaying his own shortcomings in this dreadful interview.

Mukerjee’s answers reveal nothing new. He is old Congress. He was nondescript as a Defense Minister. He was a disastrous Finance Minister. He is President because of the Peter Principle and because the possibilities of his doing anything disastrous in that post are low. The only real substance comes in his final statement. “One thing I must correct”, he says. “Two, three times during the interview, I have used the word Swiss. I, of course, meant Swedish”.

Oh Well! And was it Switzerland or Sweden which won the Eurovision song contest last night?

Tags:, ,
Posted in Behaviour, India, Media, Sweden | 1 Comment »

Weak El Nino conditions but timely monsoon still expected

May 18, 2015

El Nino conditions can suppress the Indian southwest monsoon. Weak El Nino conditions exist for the second year running but the IMD’s forecast is for the monsoon to hit the mainland at Kerala on 30th May ± 4 days.

Whenever an El Nino is about, the doomsayers compete with catastrophe scenarios, but the possibility of a “bad” monsoon in 2015 is diminishing.The economic and industrial recovery should not be adversely affected to any great extent.

Forecasts for the last nine years (2005 to 2014) were as in the table below.

Monsoon onset dates.emf

A timely monsoon (onset during May) does not necessarily mean a “good” monsoon during the official 4 months (June to September) of the season, but does decrease the probability of a “bad” monsoon. The pre-monsoon rains during May have been somewhat higher than normal but not uniformly across the country. Rainfall at the wrong time is not that useful of course but early rainfall in May and late rainfall in October does still have value.

IMD Forecast: For the last about six months, positive SST anomalies have been prevailing over the western and the central Pacific Ocean. However, the SSTs over eastern Pacific after remaining near to below normal between late December 2014 and mid-March 2015 have now become above normal. Thus currently, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Pacific.

The latest forecast from the IMD-IITM coupled model forecast indicates El Nino conditions are likely to persist during the southwest monsoon season.

At present, slight negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over Indian Ocean. The latest forecast from the coupled model indicates negative IOD conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon season. ……. the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon.

 Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

It is early days yet, but currently the advancing monsoon front is past the Andamans and slightly ahead of the long term average.

Monsoon front May 2015 IMD

Monsoon front May 2015 IMD

Tags:,
Posted in Alarmism, Climate, India, Natural Phenomena | Comments Off on Weak El Nino conditions but timely monsoon still expected

Bombay High Court restores the natural order of the universe

May 8, 2015

I am pleased to see that the Bombay High Court has seen fit to follow my exhortations to restore the natural order of the Universe where privilege is given its full due and where the high status of a Bollywood Star is honoured.

The natural order of the universe where respect must be accorded to those of higher status, and Bollywood Stars are indubitably the highest of the high, requires that Salman Khan be released immediately.

Hindustan Times reports:

The Bombay high court on Friday suspended actor Salman Khan’s jail term, handed by a lower court in the 2002 hit-and-run case, pending appeal.

The single-judge bench of justice Abhay Thipsay suspended the five-year jail term after hearing arguments from both sides.

“We can fix a date in June or July whether he is guilty or not.”

I note that the Bombay High Court had little to say about the unfortunate Noor Ullah Khan who was stupid enough to sleep outdoors just where a drunken driver without a licence was about to mount the pavement and crush him to death.

Even if the cowardly driver did run away from the scene, it is surely no reason to chastise him – especially as he is a Bollywood Star.

Tags:,
Posted in Behaviour, India | Comments Off on Bombay High Court restores the natural order of the universe

Why Salman Khan should not go to jail

May 7, 2015

It is inconceivable that Salman Khan be incarcerated in some “common” prison for causing the death of some “common” man. Privilege must be given its due.

  1. Salman Khan is a Bollywood Star – which is by an Act of God.
  2. He is not a “common man” to be subjected to the same laws used to control the riff-raff.
  3. That he is not “common” is amply demonstrated by the readiness of his driver, Ashok Singh, to sacrifice himself by assuming all guilt, if any, that is alleged against the said Salman Khan.
  4. Such a sacrifice is in the best traditions of Indian mythology and Ashok Singh needs to be honoured for his magnanimous offer and freely pardoned for any and all perjury he may have committed in a greater cause.
  5. Salman cannot therefore be treated as a “common man” and be subjected to the indignities and vagaries and delays of the “common” Indian justice system.
  6. (Ashok Singh should also not be penalised for the vagaries of a “common court” and denied any of the compensation that may have been promised to him by Salman Khan).
  7. The relatives of the homeless but “common” man who was killed when he was run over by a drunken Salman Khan – a certain Noor Ullah Khan – will now receive more in compensation than they could ever have received from the earnings of the dead man. (Thanks be to a merciful God!)
  8. The three other labourers injured  have confirmed that the compensation they receive is far more important than any conviction of Salman Khan. (Thanks be to a merciful God!)
  9. By any measure the life of an endangered black buck is worth much more than that of the unfortunate Noor Ullah Khan.
  10. For killing (poaching) the black buck Salman Khan has been convicted and sentenced to one year in prison – which is not being implemented since he is an uncommon man and the higher Indian courts are exhibiting the deference due.
  11. The natural order of the universe where respect must be accorded to those of higher status, and Bollywood Stars are indubitably the highest of the high, requires that Salman Khan be released immediately.

Tags:,
Posted in Behaviour, India | 1 Comment »

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »