Another case of data manipulation, another Dutch psychology scandal

April 30, 2014

UPDATE!

Jens Förster denies the claims of misconduct and has sent an email defending himself to Retraction Watch.

============================

One would have thought the credentials of social psychology as a science – after Diedrik Staple, Dirk Smeesters and Mark Hauser – could not fall much lower. But data manipulation in social psychology would seem to be a bottomless pit.

Another case of data manipulation by social psychologists has erupted at the University of Amsterdam. This time by Jens Förster professor of social psychology at the University of Amsterdam and his colleague Markus Denzler. 

Retraction Watch: 

The University of Amsterdam has called for the retraction of a 2011 paper by two psychology researchers after a school investigation concluded that the article contained bogus data, the Dutch press are reporting.

The paper, “Sense Creative! The Impact of Global and Local Vision, Hearing, Touching, Tasting and Smelling on Creative and Analytic Thought,” was written by Jens Förster and Markus Denzler  and published in Social Psychological & Personality Science. ….

Professor Jens Förster

Jens Förster is no lightweight apparently. He is supposed to have research interests in the principles of motivation. Throughout my own career the practice of motivation in the workplace has been a special interest and I have read some of his papers. Now I feel let down. I have a theory that one of the primary motivators of social psychologists in academia is a narcissistic urge for media attention. No shortage of ego. And I note that as part of his webpage detailing his academic accomplishments he also feels it necessary to highlight his TV appearances!!!!

Television Appearances (Selection) 

Nachtcafé (SWR), Buten & Binnen (RB), Hermann & Tietjen (NDR), Euroland (SWF), Menschen der Woche (SWF), Die große Show der Naturwunder (ARD), Quarks & Co (WDR), Plasberg persönlich (WDR), Im Palais (RBB), Westart (WDR)

They love being Darlings of the media and the media oblige!

As a commenter on Retraction Watch points out, Förster also doubles as a cabaret artist! Perhaps he sees his academic endeavours also as a form of entertaining the public.

Rolf Degen: I hope that this will not escalate, as this could get ugly for the field of psychology. Jens Förster, a German, is a bigger name than Stapel ever was. He was repeatedly portrayed in the German media, not the least because of his second calling as a singer and a cabaret artist, and he has published an enormous amount of books, studies and review papers, all high quality stuff

This revelation occurs at a bad time for Förster, write the Dutch media. He is supposed to work as “Humboldt professor starting from June 1, and he was awarded five million Euros to do research at a German university the next five years. He is also supposed to cooperate with Jürgen Margraf – who is the President of the “German Society for Psychology” and as such the highest ranking German psychologist.

Japan to help Eastern Europe to shift from gas to coal

April 29, 2014

A return to coal as reality bites. It is now a “good thing” to help Eastern Europe to shift from Russian gas to their own coal.

Perhaps it is beginning to sink in that while carbon dioxide emissions have increased substantially in the last 20 years there has been no impact on global temperature. There is just no direct evidence that man-made carbon dioxide emissions have any significant impact on global temperature or on climate. The entire edifice of climate politics is built on this one unproven – and now broken – assumption. Take away this single assumption and all of climate politics collapses in a sorry heap.

Yomiuri Shimbun:

The government plans to support Ukraine and other Eastern European nations in the construction of next-generation coal-fired power plants that can generate power with less fuel, according to informed sources.

Under the initiative, Japan would stand behind the nations’ efforts to use coal—abundant in Eastern Europe—instead of natural gas, the supply of which makes them dependent on Russia. The government is expected to announce the initiative at the meeting of energy ministers from Japan and other Group of Seven industrialized nations to be held in Rome from May 5.

Japan’s support will involve the construction of coal-fired power plants using technologies known as supercritical steam pressure and ultra supercritical pressure to spin the turbines, enabling these nations to obtain electricity while using less fuel and emitting less carbon dioxide.

With a power generation efficiency of 40 percent to 43 percent, Japan has the world’s most advanced technologies in this field. About one-fourth of the coal-fired power plants in the nation use these technologies.

In comparison, Germany has a power generation efficiency of about 38 percent, while the corresponding figures for Ukraine and other Eastern European nations apparently remain at the 30 percent levels. 

If an agreement is reached with Ukraine, Japan will support a feasibility study to rebuild power plants during the current fiscal year. Under the initiative, Japan will provide yen loans to cover several tens of billions of yen in construction costs in addition to its energy-saving technologies, while Ukraine will provide emission quotas for greenhouse gases to Japan under their bilateral framework.

The G-7 meeting of energy ministers will discuss policies to raise the energy self-sufficiency rates of Ukraine and other European nations, as well as diversifying their energy supplies with one goal in mind: lowering their dependency on natural gas and oil from Russia.

 Ukraine imports 60 percent of the natural gas it uses from Russia, while the three Baltic nations and Eastern European nations buy from 60 percent to 100 percent of their natural gas from that country—a situation that makes it difficult to shift away from their reliance on Russia.

Though they have a dearth of natural gas, Eastern European nations have rich reserves of coal, with Ukraine being almost self-sufficient in that resource. Introduction of the next-generation coal-fired power plants is likely to improve their energy self-sufficiency rates, the sources said.

Every religious state has practised apartheid

April 29, 2014

I note that John Kerry is backing away from his (self-evident) statement that without a two-state solution, Israel would become an apartheid state.

Daily Beast: John Kerry apologized Monday for warning last week that the lack of a two-state solution in the Middle East could lead to Israel becoming an “apartheid state.” Kerry’s remarks, made in a closed door meeting of the Trilateral Commission and first reported by The Daily Beast Sunday night, provoked strong reactions from across the political spectrum. 

In a statement issued Monday evening, Kerry defended his record as a supporter of Israel but also said, “if I could rewind the tape, I would have chosen a different word to describe my firm belief that the only way in the long term to have a Jewish state and two nations and two peoples living side by side in peace and security is through a two state solution.” 

But Israel is already an apartheid state.

The simple reality is that all states which have or have had an official state religion have practiced apartheid. They inevitably created different classes of citizenship. Some countries (UK, Scandinavia) have now softened their positions and have legislation to protect those of other religions while still maintaining an “official religion”. In the UK the top 25 servants of the Church of England still have an automatic place in Parliament. Many states still give strong preference to those following the official religion and in such states – whether they admit it or not – a form of religious apartheid is in place. Many of these are Muslim countries (Iraq, Pakistan, Palestine, Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, Afghanistan and the Muslim countries of the Middle East and Africa).To be a non-Jew in Israel is to be a second-class citizen. Israel still has no provisions for civil marriage or for marriage between people who do not belong to one of the 9 recognised religions. To be a Hindu in Sri Lanka is currently a distinct disadvantage. To be a non-Buddhist in Cambodia has its difficulties.

Religious discrimination is much more widespread and is practiced at community level and at the level of individuals all over the globe. In most of Europe it is a clear disadvantage to be visibly a Muslim. Most of the right-wing, nationalistic parties would like to return to a “Christian” state religion – but that is not because they wish to be Christian but because they want to give their anti-Islamic views a cloak of “officious”  respectability.

Politics and religion make a heady mix and nationalistic and religious fanaticism will continue as long as religions continue and nation-states continue.

I won’t live to see it but there will come a time when individual faith takes precedence and organised religions and their brainwashing will be abandoned. And nation-states could – hopefully – have become obsolete by then.

Idiot science: Babies cry at night to prevent Mom from having another child!!

April 28, 2014
David Haig

David Haig

Some so-called “science” is done primarily for headlines – even at Harvard. I wonder if there is a correlation between headlines generated and funding received?

This time the idiot science is from David Haig – a biology Professor at Harvard. His abstract states

All these observations are consistent with a hypothesis that waking at night to suckle is an adaptation of infants to extend their mothers’ lactational amenorrhea, thus delaying the birth of a younger sib and enhancing infant survival.

From Science News:

When a baby cries at night, exhausted parents scramble to figure out why. He’s hungry. Wet. Cold. Lonely. But now, a Harvard scientist offers more sinister explanation: The baby who demands to be breastfed in the middle of the night is preventing his mom from getting pregnant again.

This devious intention makes perfect sense, says evolutionary biologist David Haig, who describes his idea in Evolution, Medicine and Public Health. Another baby means having to share mom and dad, so babies are programmed to do all they can to thwart the meeting of sperm and egg, the theory goes.

Since babies can’t force birth control pills on their mothers, they work with what they’ve got: Nighttime nursing liaisons keep women from other sorts of liaisons that might lead to another child. And beyond libido-killing interruptions and extreme fatigue, frequent night nursing also delays fertility in nursing women. Infant suckling can lead to hormone changes that put the kibosh on ovulation (though not reliably enough to be a fail-safe birth control method, as many gynecologists caution).

Of course, babies don’t have the wherewithal to be interrupting their mothers’ fertility intentionally. It’s just that in our past, babies who cried to be nursed at night had a survival edge, Haig proposes.

The timing of night crying seems particularly damning, Haig says. Breastfed babies seem to ramp up their nighttime demands around 6 months of age and then slowly improve — precisely the time when a baby would want to double down on its birth control efforts. … 

Tenured Professors would seem to have little need for common sense.

What is worse than the idiot science is the fawning article by Laura Sanders in Science News.

For cricket lovers — Three all out!

April 27, 2014

No comment needed about this score today but it was not the lowest score ever- that achievement was by Somerset club Langport who were dismissed for zero  against Glastonbury in a 1913 match.

I suppose that the innings lasted for as long as 56 balls is something of an achievement.  And Mr. C Hobson – the No. 11 – was the highest scorer with one run in 7 balls. Wirral batted second after their opponents scored 108 and lost by 105 runs.

Wirrall Cricket Club scorecard against Haslington

Wirrall Cricket Club scorecard against Haslington 27th April 2014

Source: BBC Sport

MH370 – 50 days on

April 27, 2014

It was 7 weeks yesterday since MH370 vanished with all its crew passengers and cargo.

Barack Obama is visiting Malaysia – the first visit by a sitting US President for over 50 years. He has expressed “solidarity” with Malaysia regarding MH370 – whatever that entails.

Since I left Malaysia on 8th April – one month after the vanishing act – nothing further has emerged. There is still no trace of anything. No debris at all. No bits and pieces gradually making their way to the surface. No passenger effects or luggage washed up anywhere. As if everything and everybody had been vaporised.

The behaviour of the Malaysian Air Force in ignoring the aircraft while flying back over Malaysian airspace and which was picked up by military radar is still to be explained.

Searches are continuing under water, in an area of the Indian Ocean which has been calculated to be its final position. The handshake radio pings from the ACARS system on board when communicating to a wobbly Inmarsat satellite contained no location or direction of flight information.  Those are being inferred from an analysis of the Doppler variations caused by the satellite’s wobble. A method being used for the first time and unproven. The probability that this calculation method is in error and may even be invalid is not insignificant.

Malaysiakini: Family members of MH370’s passengers have expressed doubt on the analysis of Inmarsat data that Prime Minister Najib Razak relied on to declare, some say with questionable haste, that the plane had “ended in the southern Indian Ocean”.

But what is known is that the aircraft spent 23 minutes at 45,000 feet and then descended rapidly to 23,000 feet. The passengers (and crew?) being incapacitated by hypoxia is highly probable. At most the oxygen masks could have provided 12 minutes of oxygen – perhaps less. A lack of oxygen for this long a time (11+ minutes) would have led not only to unconsciousness (after 4 or 5 minutes) but a permanent and irreversible coma. It is not unreasonable to suppose that all passengers and most of the crew were already dead or in an irreversible coma just over an hour into the flight, by the time the plane descended to 23,000 feet. It remains faintly possible that the pilot(s) were conscious at this time but if the plane was under remote control at this time then they too would likely have been fatally incapacitated.

But I note that there is nothing emerging about the cargo. Or about the software engineers on board.

Malaysiakini: MH370’s cargo manifest remains a secret, and its contents are unknown besides disclosure of an uncharacteristically large shipment of mangosteens, which are not in season in March, and potentially hazardous lithium-ion batteries …

A terrorist hijack with no subsequent publicity or claims makes no sense. The return to 23,000 feet and the continued “stealth” flight for several hours to “nowhere” makes “pilot suicide” highly unlikely. And that leaves a deliberate act – by persons or agencies unknown – to first eliminate all the passengers and crew and then a flight to get rid of some very sensitive cargo, the entire plane and all evidence in a remote and inaccessible place.

But it was no accident.

 

Drunk + Australian = Air-rage

April 25, 2014

At first glance a not very remarkable story. Australians being drunk and unruly has been a stereo-type since the 1960’s. I would have imagined that the Nanny-State that Australia has become might have softened that image but perhaps it is the very existence of the Nanny-State which gives more cause to rebel against authority and reinforces the “spoilt-brat” image.

Sydney Morning Herald:

A drunk passenger caused the closure of Bali’s airport and sparked a full-scale security alert when he attempted to enter the cockpit of a Virgin Australia flight from Brisbane to Denpasar, prompting the pilot to report a hijacking attempt.

Bali Air Force Commander Colonel Sugiharto, said the perpetrator was an Australian passenger named Matt Christopher Lockley, 28. 


DENPASAR, BALI, INDONESIA - APRIL 25:  Australian Matt Christopher, (C), a passenger of Virgin Blue Australia Airplane, who is believed to have tried to enter the cockpit, is arrested by Indonesian millitary officers at International Ngurah Rai airport in Denpasar on April 25, 2014 in Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia. Early reports suggested an attempt to hijack a Virgin Australia had occured mid-flight, although Virgin has since clarified that the disturbance was caused by a drunk passenger acting aggressively and attempting to enter the cockpit.  (Photo by Agung Parameswara/Getty Images)

Australian Matt Christopher Lockley, a passenger of the Virgin flight, who is believed to have tried to enter the cockpit, is arrested by Indonesian military officers. Photo: Agung Parameswara – Getty Images

But the interesting aspect is that air-rage leading to unruly “passenger incident” is – based on population or passengers carried  – more than 30 times more likely in Australia than the US.

Population: Australia 22.7 million; US 317 million

Air passengers (2012): Australia 65 million; US 735 million

Unruly Passenger Incidents (WSJ – 2011): Australia 488; US 192

Unruly Passenger Incidents per million passengers carried:

Australia – 7.5; USA – 0.26

World statistics are hard to come by but Australia probably leads the field in unruly airline passenger incidents.

No sign of global warming in Great Lakes ice cover

April 25, 2014

Great lakes (Wikipedia)

An exceptionally cold winter has seen the ice coverage over the Great Lakes being extremely high. Lake Superior has experienced the latest ever recorded start to shipping.

The total accumulated ice cover since 1980/81 and till 2013/14 shows no sign of any global warming. The season 2011/12 with its low ice cover was often “produced” as proof of global warming. By that standard of proof, 2013/14 clearly demonstrates that global cooling is upon us and a new ice age is on the way.

From Canadian Ice Service:

Historical Great Lakes Ice Cover 1980 - 2014

Tony Blair is still trying to justify his Iraq idiocy

April 24, 2014

The Iraq war, where Tony Blair played poodle to George Bush, was prosecuted on a lie. They didn’t like Saddam Hussain and so they got rid of him. They sexed up their dossiers about Weapons of Mass Destruction. They sold the lie to the United Nations. They managed to establish the principle that any state may get involved in regime-change in any other state – whenever it has the desire and the might to do so. Their idiot-behaviour has led to the growth of subsequent terrorism and of large numbers of  radicalised, Muslim, idiot-youth.

The view history takes of Tony Blair will not be pretty. He will – I think – be seen as an opportunistic, money-grubbing, dishonest politician who took advantage of his former high position for obscene personal gain. The growth of radicalised Muslim youth in Europe with their juvenile antics in search of jihad are a direct consequence of the Iraq War and the War on Terror. But Tony Blair is getting worried about his legacy and his place in history and he is at it again. He would like the world to believe that radical Islam – which he helped to create – must be confronted in a new Crusade.

Tony Blair’s speech seeking to rally global support for a confrontation with Islamic extremism generated a storm of reaction, most of it negative and much of it focusing on the messenger rather than the message.

The director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, Chris Doyle, said the former prime minister had been right to underline the importance of the subject in his Bloomberg speech but was sharply critical of the way he went about tackling it.

Doyle said: “Blair is largely right to highlight the issue. Islamic extremism is not on the wane. It is flourishing in many areas of the world. Nobody should be complacent. “It is his solutions that are very problematic – particularly the idea that people in the Middle East have to choose between dictatorship and Islamic extremism, and in criticising the Muslim Brotherhood he has endorsed the military leadership in Egypt. But the choice the people of the region need is not between dictatorship and extremism but between those systems and pluralist democratic rule. In fact, dictatorships have often been a significant cause of frustration and anger, and a driving force behind the rise of al-Qaida.”

…….  The Palestinian editor of the Rai al-Youm news website, Abdel Bari Atwan, said: “Blair is implying that extremist Islam is a danger for the whole world. But the target is the Muslim Brotherhood. He is a very good friend of Mr Sisi in Egypt and he does a lot of consultancy work in the region so it’s not surprising that he’s speaking out. He had spent years as peace envoy but what kind of peace has he achieved? We have to differentiate between radical Islam and moderate Islam. If you criminalise Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood then you are pushing them into extremism.”

Much of the commentary focused on Blair’s own credibility on the subject as much as the subject itself, particularly his role in leading Britain into the war in Iraq alongside the former US president George W Bush.

Doyle said: “Before 2003, there wasn’t an issue of al-Qaida in Iraq. There is now. Intervention is highly risky and almost always leads to situations where extremists flourish. They profit from instability, civil war and the inability of states to manage their territories.”

A columnist for the Saudi-owned al-Hayat daily, Jihad al-Khazen, said: “Blair and George W Bush are as responsible for radical Islam as any of its leaders. The war in Iraq caused the death of almost a million Muslims. It gave a reason for every radical in the Middle East to go to war against the west. “I don’t think Blair will absolve himself of responsibility by making this speech. He talks about how the Middle East matters but he says nothing about Israel’s continuing occupation. He is definitely not the right person to be lecturing on this subject – or to be a peace envoy. That’s an oxymoron.”

….. Meanwhile, a columnist on the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Anshel Pfeffer, tweeted:

“The fascinating thing about Blair’s speech today is that it could have been a Netanyahu speech, word-for-word, they share the same outlook.”

Blair continues to be one of the most successful recruiters for radical Islam.

Perhaps at the root of all of this is the suspicion that those who will welcome Blair’s speech most will be the radical Islamists right across the region and beyond. One aim of the 9/11 attacks was to incite a vigorous military response that that could be represented as a war not just against radical Islamists but against Islam itself. A “clash of civilisations” may be too strong a phrase for Blair’s speech but a clash of beliefs is not too strong a term to use, to which an Islamist response might well be – “bring it on”.

The War on Terror is a crusade gone wrong. Certainly radical Islam is barbaric and uncivilised. But being barbaric and uncivilised against radical Islam, as Blair is and would like others to be, only legitimises and perpetuates the barbarism. Iraq has been followed by Afghanistan, by Libya, by Egypt and now by the fiasco in Syria. Much blood has been shed but all these irresponsible adventures have been spectacular failures in the War on Terror. Abu Ghraib and unmanned drones and State Terrorism and collateral damage have only legitimised the use of terror as a tactic of war. Boko Haram have learned the lesson.

Perhaps Tony Blair needs to be compared with Bernard, Abbot of Clairvaux and his role in the disastrous Second Crusade of 1145:

…. the Second Crusade, launched in 1145, is generally regarded as a disaster for the Christian West. Even those who took part in the Crusade saw it as a failure. According to William of Tyre:   Thus a company of kings and princes such as we have not read of through all the ages had gathered and, for our sins, had been forced to return, covered with shame and disgrace, with their mission unfulfilled…. henceforth those who undertook the pilgrimages were fewer and less fervent. 

…. Brundage claims that the failure of the Crusade to achieve any victories whatever in the east emboldened Muslim military leaders, destroyed the myth of western prowess in arms, and was to be responsible, at least in part, for causing the Muslim states of the east to draw closer together, to unite for further attacks upon the Latin states. He says that the end of the Second Crusade saw the Muslims preparing to unite, for the first time, against the Latin intruders in their midst, while the Latins, for their part, were divided sharply against one another.

Bernard was the Pope’s poodle as Blair was Bush’s.

One of Bernard’s most influential acts, for better or worse, was his preaching of the Second Crusade. The First Crusade had given the Christian forces control of a few areas in Palestine, including the city of Edessa. When Moslem forces captured Edessa (37:08 N 38:46 E, now called Urfa and located in eastern Turkey) in 1144, King Louis VII of France (not to be confused with St. Louis IX, also a Crusader, but more than a century later) was eager to launch a crusade to retake Edessa and prevent a Moslem recapture of Jerusalem (31:47 N 35:13 E). He asked Bernard for help, and Bernard refused. He then asked the Pope to order Bernard to preach a Crusade. The pope gave the order, and Bernard preached, with spectacular results. Whole villages were emptied of able-bodied males as Bernard preached and his listeners vowed on the spot to head for Palestine and defend the Sacred Shrines with their lives.

…. As for the Crusade, things went wrong from the start. The various rulers leading the movement were distrustful of one another and not disposed to work together. Of the soldiers who set out (contemporary estimates vary from 100,000 to 1,500,000), most died of disease and starvation before reaching their goal, and most of the remainder were killed or captured soon after their arrival. The impact on Bernard was devastating, and so was the impact on Europe.

 I don’t much care for Tony Blair.

Ranking the airports on my recent trip

April 23, 2014

Seven airports this time. I rank them as follows:

  1. Stockholm Arlanda
  2. Munich
  3. Kuala Lumpur
  4. Delhi
  5. Bangkok
  6. Frankfurt
  7.  last by a long way Madras (Chennai)

Stockholm Arlanda had fairly efficient, courteous and hassle-free security checks. The enforced walk through the shops is irritating. Quick check-in this time and the distances to be covered by my poor knees were not that great.

I like Munich airport even if arriving from a non-Schengen destination can be a real pain. This time I was arriving from a Schengen port (no security check needed) and departing to a non-Schengen port which was fine. Distances were not unreasonably long and the walkways were all working.

The airport at Kuala Lumpur is well laid out and clean and impressive. But Malaysian airline staff were far too laid back (my euphemism for “lazy”) and uninterested. Some long distances to cover though – with no walk-ways in sections.  Immigration was fairly efficient. I was not searched by customs but those who were seemed to be being hassled unnecessarily.

The new Delhi airport is modern and clean and generally well laid out. The distances to be walked are excessive and the walk-ways coverage is not well planned. The carpeting (cheap and already going tatty) is not helpful for rolling baggage along. Passport control was unremarkable and baggage arrived fast. Security checks – as with other Indian airports – are slow but not inordinately so.

Bangkok has deteriorated from when it was built. Distances to cover are enormous (especially if having to transfer from one wing to the other). Security checks were slow, the lay-out was labyrinthine and the staff very smart but inefficient. I was not very impressed this time either by the airport or by the staff. Thai Airlines staff – on the other hand – are very efficient and courteous.

Frankfurt has become a pain. It is just too big. The train between terminals has remarkably bad coverage. Passport control is slow because there are never enough counters for the number of passengers involved. The security staff at Frankfurt are particularly arrogant and officious and petty (even with a 3 year old child). They are also very slow. The charm-schools they went to just don’t work. The distances to be walked have grown to become quite painful. Changing terminals is not fun.

The new Chennai airport was pathetic. Entering the terminal is chaotic and badly sign-posted. Construction is not yet complete  and where it is, bits are falling off. Airport staff are not well trained and don’t seem to know what they are doing. Toilets were unclean and smelly. Passport control was OK and the security checks were again slow but otherwise unremarkable. The gates are badly designed and have no space for departing passengers . Stores are charmless and chaotic. It has been designed to be all chrome and glass and to look pretty but lacks all the substance needed for a modern international airport. The quality of the construction leaves much to be desired. (somebody has made a lot of money by using sub-standard fixtures, fittings and materials).