Archive for the ‘Alarmism’ Category

Pachauri finally sacked by TERI

July 24, 2015

RK Pachauri, former head of the IPCC, has finally been sacked by his home institute (which has operated as his fiefdom for over three decades), following allegations of sexual harassment against him.

Since the IPCC is entirely a political body, the behaviour and transgressions of its former head does bring disrepute on the the organisation itself. His transgressions are not the only example of the manner in which the IPCC has operated.

ToIAjay Mathur, technocrat and one of the members of the Prime Minister’s council on climate change, will be the new director general of The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri), replacing Rajendra Kumar Pachauri who, facing sexual harassment changes, was removed as its chief by the institution’s governing council on Thursday. …….. 

The move comes as many existing employees of the institution strongly resented Pachauri’s decision to resume his work as its chief this week after getting a court order for the same on last Friday. Employees of Teri — the institution involved in research on energy, environment and sustainable development issues — are learned to have also flagged their concerns to the governing council which has many prominent names as its members. …. 

A case of sexual harassment was registered against 74-year-old Pachauri by the Delhi Police after it received a complaint from a woman employee of the Teri in February. Though the court had granted him anticipatory bail, he was restrained from entering his office premises and contacting officials at the institution.

Thereafter, Pachauri — the then chairman of the UN’s intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) — had to proceed on leave, pending police investigation against him. He was, however, on Friday allowed by a Delhi court to enter his office premises except the head office here and a branch in Gurgaon.

Pachauri’s removal from Teri has come nearly five months after his resignation from the IPCC as its chief and also as one of the members of the Prime Minister’s council on climate change — a body which advises the government of India for all issues relating to adaptation and mitigation measures in the country to deal with the challenges posed by global warming.

Of course, the IPCC itself ought to be disbanded for the murder of science in favour of advocacy.

One cool summer increased Arctic ice by 30% – another indicator of the coming ice age?

July 22, 2015

A new paper in Nature geoscience confirms that the “cool” summer of 2013 increased Arctic ice volume by a third. It increased again in 2014 by 25%. Two cool summers have increased Arctic ice volume by 1.33 x 1.25 = 1.41 (41%).

The authors claim that this indicates that Arctic sea ice may be more resilient than has been previously considered, but I would  suggest that this also indicates something much more significant. It suggests to me that the conditions needed to trigger a little ice age (lasting 3 – 5 decades) are not so difficult to conceive of. With low solar activity, a few cool summers and a volcanic eruption or two would more than suffice. Even the long term shift from the current interglacial and back to glacial conditions (where interglacials last for 10 -20 millenia and glacial periods last even longer) could also probably be triggered by a few key events occurring together.

It is worth noting that for the last few years, ice cover in the Antarctic has been higher than it is has ever been since records began. The Arctic ice cover reached a very low level in 2012 but has rebounded quite strongly. Arctic ice levels are at the same level as in the 1980s.

By constantly rewriting historical data, the global warming orthodoxy try to show that every year is warmer than the artificially cooled past. Raw data shows no such warming. Satellite records show no such warming. It is only data sets where raw data is recalculated every year by very dodgy algorithms to give a calculated value for “global temperature” that warming shows up.

Global climatic changes must also show up as local weather. And this has been a miserable summer so far. June was colder and wetter – as perceived – than usual and July is proving to be colder and wetter than I have any memory of. My personal empirical observations would suggest that the shift into another little ice age has started.

Increased Arctic sea ice volume after anomalously low melting in 2013

Abstract: ……. Between autumn 2010 and 2012, there was a 14% reduction in Arctic sea ice volume, in keeping with the long-term decline in extent. However, we observe 33% and 25% more ice in autumn 2013 and 2014, respectively, relative to the 2010–2012 seasonal mean, which offset earlier losses. This increase was caused by the retention of thick sea ice northwest of Greenland during 2013 which, in turn, was associated with a 5% drop in the number of days on which melting occurred—conditions more typical of the late 1990s. In contrast, springtime Arctic sea ice volume has remained stable. The sharp increase in sea ice volume after just one cool summer suggests that Arctic sea ice may be more resilient than has been previously considered.

Even the BBC which is religiously fanatic (only exceeded by The Guardian) in its adherence to global warming orthodoxy, has been compelled to report the increase in Arctic ice. But of course they continue to deny that real data in conflict with model expectations can invalidate the models predicting man-made global warming:

BBC:

The volume of Arctic sea ice increased by around a third after an unusually cool summer in 2013. Researchers say the growth continued in 2014 and more than compensated for losses recorded in the three previous years. The scientists involved believe changes in summer temperatures have greater impacts on ice than thought. 

Why do they have to then add pure rubbish?

But they say 2013 was a one-off and that climate change will continue to shrink the ice in the decades ahead.

Snow in Hawaii in July – another omen of the coming ice age?

July 18, 2015

Mauna Kea gets snow in winter but not in July – when Hawaii is supposed to be sweltering.

The omens are gathering. The false prophets of global warming will tell us that cold weather is perfectly consistent with a warming Earth.We ignore these divine omens of a coming ice age at our peril.

Hawaii News Now:

While most of Hawaii experiences sweltering conditions this July, part of the Big Island might seem like winter after Mauna Kea got some snow overnight.

Officials have closed the road to the summit of Mauna Kea Friday after snow fell and caused icy road conditions. A ranger reported mixed rain and snow, fog and 1.5 inches of frozen snow on the summit.

IMAGE TAKEN ON MAUNA KEA – JULY 17, 2015 Hawaii News Now

Image: Mauna Kea Weather Center

Image: Mauna Kea Weather Center 17 July 2015

With another ice age on its way, thank goodness for fossil fuels.

More snow in Queensland and NSW than for a decade – harbinger of the coming ice age?

July 17, 2015

Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is the highest in modern times and has been increasing for well over a decade. But global temperatures – however that is defined – has shown no sign of warming and a slight decrease in that period. The Sun’s activity is down and reducing to levels similar to that of the Maunder Minimum in this Landscheidt Minimum. A new Little Ice Age is likely by 2030.

The small little signs of weather that are harbingers of the coming Little Ice Age are accumulating – even in the southern hemisphere. Australia is experiencing a “cold” wave (though +12ºC does not seem particularly cold). The cold wave is also giving “unprecedented” (for a decade) levels of snow.

It is inevitable that since the global warming priesthood have been preparing for the icecaps melting that we will now enter a new ice age.

Maybe this time the glaciers are going to spread in the southern hemisphere across Australia and South America?

SMH: Snow creates winter wonderland … in Queensland, as well as NSW

 

It has always been the Sun as new model predicts another ice age

July 12, 2015

I can see the evidence that the earth goes through warming and cooling cycles. But I have seen no evidence that man-made carbon dioxide emissions have had any significant impact on global climate in general or on global warming in particular. I am more inclined to the view that our climate is overwhelmingly dominated by the Sun – both directly with insolation variations and indirectly through the clouds and the oceans. Solar activity indicates we are approaching – or have arrived at – a new minimum, the Landscheidt Minimum – which will be similar to the Maunder Minimum. Another Little Ice Age in the next decade or two has always been on the cards.

(On a longer timescale, I believe a large volcanic eruption could be one of the possible triggers which tips the earth from interglacial to glacial conditions and our current interglacial cannot last more than another millennium or so.)

Now another model of the suns activity level also suggests that a Maunder-like Minimum and another Little Ice Age is just around the corner.

PhysOrg:

A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645. Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun’s activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,” said Zharkova.

Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched.

Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity. 

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”

It really is time to acknowledge the Landscheidt Minimum:

Landscheidt also predicted that after the next solar minimum in 2030 the following minimum would occur in 2200.

It is perhaps time to officially name this minimum that is coming as the “Landscheidt Minimum”.

 

“Global warming” on vacation as July temperatures rival last November

July 10, 2015

Reality seems quite different to the fanciful computer models of the alarmists. Where has the imagined global warming gone? Of course “global warming” is not something that can be experienced or observed. Global temperature is an artefact. It can only be calculated from “adjusted” and “homogenised” data where the past has been cooled and continues to be cooled with every year that passes. The algorithms used to adjust and homogenise real data seem to be designed to produce pre-determined results. From raw temperature data, there is no evidence of man-made global warming.

We had 3 days here in Sweden over 30ºC last week. The fantasists began talking about a “heat wave”. Since then it has felt like March or November. The maximum today will not exceed 13ºC.

(Note that in the UK, on one day last week – and based on one temperature reading at an airport – it was claimed that it was the hottest day for 200 years. Even if the sensational conclusion was correct – which it was not since it was hotter in 1976 – it would only demonstrate that it was hotter 200 years ago and long before man made emissions were of any significance).

DagensNyheter:

November Chill – in the middle of July
The summer warmth is conspicuous by its absence. And the mercury can hardly get to more than 12 degrees in Stockholm. It is as cold as last November.

The summer warmth will have to wait a good long while. Low pressures are relentless in Sweden – and today it is colder than in a long time. The temperature in Stockholm just before midday is about 12 degrees. It is as cold as the beginning of November last year.

“This is unusually cold and far below the normal temperature”, says Eva Strandberg, meteorologist at SMHI.

It does not appear that it will be much warmer anytime soon. “During the next 10 days or so it does not look like there will be any high pressure. The unstable weather will dominate and perhaps with a few days up to 20 degrees. There is a continued risk of showers”, says Eva Strandberg.

No evidence of any global warming in robust Arctic and Antarctic ice extents

July 8, 2015

After 40+ years of an imagined, man-made, global warming, the ice extent at the poles and in the Greenland Ice Sheet seem pretty robust – individually and collectively.

No further commentary is necessary.

Arctic Ice Extent – 6th July 2015

Arctic Ice Extent 6 July 2015

Arctic Ice Extent 6 July 2015

Antarctic Ice Extent – 6th July 2015

Antarctic Ice Extent 6 July 2015

Antarctic Ice Extent 6 July 2015

Mass of Greenland Ice Sheet 

Greenland Icesheet mass 2015

Greenland Icesheet mass 2015

Bill Gates punctures the renewables fantasy balloon

June 29, 2015

I know that renewables provide a useful but limited resource for our energy needs. I know that they are economic only in some specialised niches in the energy sector. I dislike the distortion in the market caused by subsidies generally and power generation subsidies in particular. I “know” because I have worked within the energy sector including the renewables sector for some 40 years. I have made the calculations myself and I don’t rely on advocacy reports or alarmist scenarios. I have made the calculations of the various benefits accruing to the developers, the equipment manufacturers, the power plant owner/operators and the consumers. Grant subsidies allow the developers to make money at the cost of the consumer. Feed-in tariffs and tax breaks allow the owner/operator to make money at the cost of the consumer. Subsidies attract the “cowboy” developers and manufacturers who take their money and arrange a suitable bankruptcy at the appropriate time. If subsidies are reduced or removed, it is all too easy for the owner/operator to walk away without losses and without liability. It is consumers and the duped small investors who pay the cost.

I pay little attention to publicity hungry “personalities” who jump on the nearest fashionable, image enhancing band-wagon. I am highly suspicious of the rich and famous supporting “causes”, without any exercise of mind and primarily for the sake of publicity and image. I admire but don’t much care for Microsoft’s autocratic ways (and  I do use Windows) and see Bill Gates as extraordinary in his field but not as any kind of expert on energy matters. But he is a “personality” with a very valid claim to fame – in his area. So it is gratifying to read this report, even if it has no real impact on my views, at least as one example of a rich and famous “personality” who bothered to think.

The A-Register:

Retired software kingpin and richest man in the world Bill Gates has given his opinion that today’s renewable-energy technologies aren’t a viable solution for reducing CO2 levels, and governments should divert their green subsidies into R&D aimed at better answers.

Gates expressed his views in an interview given to the Financial Times yesterday, saying that the cost of using current renewables such as solar panels and windfarms to produce all or most power would be “beyond astronomical”. At present very little power comes from renewables: in the UK just 5.2 per cent, the majority of which is dubiously-green biofuel burning1 rather than renewable ‘leccy – and even so, energy bills have surged and will surge further as a result.

In Bill Gates’ view, the answer is for governments to divert the massive sums of money which are currently funnelled to renewables owners to R&D instead. This would offer a chance of developing low-carbon technologies which actually can keep the lights on in the real world.

“The only way you can get to the very positive scenario is by great innovation,” he told the pink ‘un. “Innovation really does bend the curve.”

Gates says he’ll personally put his money where his mouth is. He’s apparently invested $1bn of his own cash in low-carbon energy R&D already, and “over the next five years, there’s a good chance that will double,” he said.

The ex-software overlord stated that the Guardian‘s scheme of everyone refusing to invest in oil and gas companies would have “little impact”. He also poured scorn on another notion oft-touted as a way of making renewable energy more feasible, that of using batteries to store intermittent supplies from solar or wind. 

“There’s no battery technology that’s even close to allowing us to take all of our energy from renewables,” he said, pointing out – as we’ve noted on these pages before – that it’s necessary “to deal not only with the 24-hour cycle but also with long periods of time where it’s cloudy and you don’t have sun or you don’t have wind.” ……

I would go further of course. A low-carbon economy itself is nothing to aspire to unless it makes commercial sense. It does not now and will not for many years to come. It achieves nothing for climate but does increase costs, everywhere and particularly in the developing world where fossil fuels are needed most. In Europe, the obsession with renewables has delayed the financial recovery and has cost almost 20 million jobs.

Though Bill Gates does not qualify as an energy expert, he certainly does qualify as an influential investor. He even qualifies as an informed investor in the energy sector. So some little common sense from one of the very rich and famous to balance the irrational, do-gooding and sanctimonious mouthings of others is always welcome.

“Mad Professor” Ehrlich cries wolf again

June 20, 2015

Paul Ehrlich will probably be remembered as being the professor who has been more wrong, more often than any other.

To be proved spectacularly wrong , time after time, is apparently a prime qualification for “mad professors” to remain employed. Paul Ehrlich is the perfect example of what is wrong with the tenure system. Of course it helps if your predictions are about catastrophes to come which inevitably garner headlines – no matter how stupid the predictions are. He is at it again making doomsday predictions. This time the doom approaching is because humans have already started the 6th mass extinction which may include the disappearance of the human species. (Actually the earth has too many species and a drastic cull of species is needed).

It is worth recalling all the sensational, headline grabbing but wonderfully wrong predictions that Ehrlich has made:

  • 1968, “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate …”
  • 1968, “India couldn’t possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.”
  • 1969, “By 1985 enough millions will have died to reduce the earth’s population to some acceptable level, like 1.5 billion people.”
  • 1969, He predicted that by the end of the century the population of the US would be under 20 million, and our life expectancy would be around 40 years – due not to starvation, but to pesticides.
  • 1970, “In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.”
  • 1970, “When you reach a point where you realize further efforts will be futile, you may as well look after yourself and your friends and enjoy what little time you have left. That point for me is 1972.”
  • 1970s, “The train of events leading to the dissolution of India as a viable nation is already in motion.”  He proposed a number of radical solutions to the overpopulation crisis; dumping sterilizing agents into water supplies, allowing only selected people the privilege of reproduction, and performing mass “triage” of nations, between those who don’t need help (North America, Australia, parts of Europe), those who can be saved, and those who are beyond help – India, Sub-Saharan Africa, and much of Asia, which he predicted would be hell on earth by the 1980’s
  • 1971, “By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people. …… I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”

For 4 decades he has made predictions about catastrophes due to famine, depletion of resources, disease, poisoning by pesticides, global warming and climate disruption. Every one of his predictions about the future has been, or is being, proved wrong. Sometimes he gets his history right, but his ability to look forward, even over short times, is hopelessly flawed.

Now he is at it again about the 6th mass extinction that has “already started”. But we actually have more species today than we have probably ever had. The detritus of failed and failing species needs to be cleaned out.

Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich, Anthony D. Barnosky, Andrés García, Robert M. Pringle and Todd M. Palmer. Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction. Science Advances, 2015 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1400253

Abstract: ...  We assess, using extremely conservative assumptions, whether human activities are causing a mass extinction. First, we use a recent estimate of a background rate of 2 mammal extinctions per 10,000 species per 100 years (that is, 2 E/MSY), which is twice as high as widely used previous estimates. We then compare this rate with the current rate of mammal and vertebrate extinctions. The latter is conservatively low because listing a species as extinct requires meeting stringent criteria. Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 114 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way.

But there are still more species around than ever before. And a lot of them need to go extinct to make way for others that are more suited. No previous mass extinction has been any threat to life on earth though it has each time cleared the decks of species not fit or worthy to continue.

The fossil record shows that biodiversity in the world has been increasing dramatically for 200 million years and is likely to continue. The two mass extinctions in that period (at 201 million and 66 million years ago) slowed the trend only temporarily. Genera are the next taxonomic level up from species and are easier to detect in fossils. The Phanerozoic is the 540-million-year period in which animal life has proliferated. Chart created by and courtesy of University of Chicago paleontologists J. John Sepkoski, Jr. and David M. Raup.

But the one good thing about Paul Ehrlich’s predictions is that it provides a clear identification of an area not to worry too much about.

Pope’s fatwa presents a cosmic teapot and passes the buck on global warming

June 16, 2015

A draft of the Pope’s 192 page fatwa, due on Thursday, was leaked in an Italian magazine over the weekend. The Vatican protests that it is not the final version.

If the leak is correct, the Pope does not claim that he believes in the man-made global warming fantasy. He does not claim that he has received some Divine Revelation. He stops short of declaring jihad. Instead he takes a populist position but in a rush of cowardice he passes the buck to “numerous scientific studies”. For those (such as The Guardian and Huff Po) expecting authoritative support from the Catholic God, through the Pope as his infallible mouthpiece, this fatwa may be as explosive as a wet christmas cracker.

“though other factors may be involved, numerous scientific studies indicate that the majority of the global warming in recent decades is due to the large concentration of greenhouse gases… emitted above all due to human activity,”

He blames the developed world for the lack of development in the third world. He forgets that the developing world desperately needs to use fossil fuels to continue their development. He makes the fundamental mistake of thinking that the development of one part of the world is at the expense of other parts. He forgets, in his ignorance, that the poor are not poor because the rich are rich. This following section is from a translation at Bishop Hill

For poor countries, the priority should be the eradication of poverty and social development of their inhabitants; at the same time the scandalous level of consumption of certain privileged sectors of their population must be considered and better counter corruption. Of course, they must also develop less polluting forms energy production, but for this they have need to rely on help from countries that are grown much at the expense of pollution today the planet. The direct exploitation of abundant solar energy requires that you establish mechanisms and subsidies so that developing countries can have access to technology transfer, for technical assistance and financial resources, but always paying attention to concrete conditions, since the compatibility of the systems with the context for which they are proposed is not always properly assessed. The costs would be low when compared to risk of climate change. In any case, it is above all an ethical choice, based on solidarity of all peoples.

As usual the Pope – just like idiot Muftis promoting jihad – operates in the Space of Ignorance and as his “authority”, he presents the views of others operating in the Space of Ignorance.

The man made global warming “theory” is based on untestable hypotheses.  Climate “science” is not science it is advocacy.

Human emissions of carbon dioxide are less than 5% of all carbon dioxide emissions.

Carbon dioxide emission sources (GT CO2/year)

  • Transpiration 440
  • Release from oceans 330
  • Fossil fuel combustion 26
  • Changing land use 6
  • Volcanoes and weathering 1

Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere by about 15 GT CO2/ year. The accuracy of the amounts of carbon dioxide emitted by transpiration and by the oceans is no better than about 2 – 3% and that error band (+/- 20GT/year)  is itself almost as large as the total amount of emissions from fossil fuels. ….. 

Bertrand Russel with his “cosmic teapot” pointed out that the burden of proof lies upon those making scientifically untestable claims rather than shifting the burden of proof to sceptics. To paraphrase what he wrote

Many orthodox global warmists speak as though it were the business of sceptics to disprove received dogmas rather than of dogmatists to prove them. This is, of course, a mistake. If I were to suggest that between the Earth and Mars there is a china teapot revolving about the sun in an elliptical orbit, nobody would be able to disprove my assertion provided I were careful to add that the teapot is too small to be revealed even by our most powerful telescopes. But if I were to go on to say that, since my assertion cannot be disproved, it is intolerable presumption on the part of human reason to doubt it, I should rightly be thought to be talking nonsense. If, however, the existence of such a teapot were affirmed in political IPCC  reports, taught as the sacred truth every Sunday, and instilled into the minds of children at school, hesitation to believe in its existence would become a mark of eccentricity and entitle the doubter to the attentions of the psychiatrist in an enlightened age or of the Inquisitor in an earlier time.

Or as he elaborates

To take another illustration: nobody can prove that there is not between the Earth and Mars a china teapot revolving in an elliptical orbit, but nobody thinks this sufficiently likely to be taken into account in practice. I think man made global warming just as unlikely.

O ignorant priest! O cowardly priest!

And not specifically for this Pope but for all “priests” everywhere and including the “high priests of false science” and the high priests of jihad : O who will rid us of these troublesome priests.