Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category

La Niña driving severe rains and floods in Brazil and Australia

January 12, 2011

The La Niña event established this year is particularly intense and maybe the most severe in a 100 years. Such events are known to give warm sea surface temperatures and greater evaporation giving heavy rains in the Western Pacific in Australia, less rain in the Eastern Pacific on the western coast of S. America (coastal Chile and Peru) but increased rain on the east coast in southern Brazil and  northern Argentina.

Yesterday, heavy rainfall and floods in Brazil  claimed 80 lives.

UPDATE!! This morning the death toll is reported to be over 250.

UPDATE 2!! 13th January: Now death toll is around 400.

BBC:

More than 80 people have died in towns near Rio de Janeiro as heavy rains continue to cause flooding and mudslides in south-eastern Brazil. Overnight downpours triggered landslides in the mountain town of Teresopolis, where more than 50 were reported to have died. At least three firefighters were among several people buried in mudslides in Nova Friburgo.

Brazil has seen severe flooding this year which has left thousands homeless.

The death toll is expected to climb as rescuers reach remote villages in the mountains. One report, compiling official and media figures, put the toll so far at 93.

This week, torrential rains in neighbouring Sao Paulo state left 13 people dead and brought traffic chaos to Brazil’s biggest city. In Teresopolis, 100km (62 miles) north of Rio Janeiro, a river burst its banks, submerging buildings, while the rainfall set off several mudslides.

The rains and floods in Queensland have claimed 13 lives so far but the peak in Brisbane a few hours ago was fortunately about 1 m lower than in the 1974 floods. Nevertheless many thousands of homes have been inundated and the damage to Queensland industry and agriculture is severe. The final death toll is likely to be higher since it is feared that some bodies will only be discovered after the waters recede. Now heavy rain and flash floods have hit Victoria as well.

The Guardian:

The devastating flooding in Queensland is the result of Australia being in the grip of an unusually strong “La Niña”, a periodic climate phenomenon that brings more rain to the western Pacific, and less to South America along the eastern Pacific.

“The Queensland floods are caused by what is one of the strongest – if not the strongest – La Niña events since our records began in the late 19th century,” said Prof Neville Nicholls at Monash University and president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. “The La Niña is associated with record warm sea-surface temperatures around Australia and these would have contributed to the heavy rains.” Warmer oceans produce damper air and hence more rain. This is driven onshore by the stronger east-to-west trade winds characteristic of La Niña.

In both Australia and S. America the rains have about another 2 months to run.

related posts:

June 2010 – https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/high-probability-of-la-nina/

October 2010 – https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/10/25/la-nina-strengthens-further/

Snow in all US States except Florida

January 12, 2011

A map of snowfall in the United States is revealing right now: 49 states have snow on this 1/11/11 and only one does not.

From the southern snow storm heading north, which is affecting air travel, to the pending storm in New York City, and flurries out west, there’s plenty of white stuff going around.

The lone state without a flake? It’s the Sunshine State…Florida. Locals are celebrating the fact, though interestingly, parts of the state saw snow just days ago.

Even Hawaii has snow, in Mauna Kea on the Big Island.

 

Sundog (parhelion) as seen in N. China

January 11, 2011

A parhelion (sundog) combined with a halo is seen in Changchun, capital of northeast China's Jilin Province, Jan. 8, 2011. (Xinhua/Lin Hong)

 

From Wikipedia:

Sundogs are formed by plate-shaped hexagonal ice crystals in high and cold cirrus clouds or, during very cold weather, by ice crystals called diamond dust drifting in the air at low levels. These crystals act as prisms, bending the light rays passing through them by 22°. If the crystals are randomly oriented, a complete ring around the sun is seen — a halo. But often, as the crystals sink through the air they become vertically aligned, so sunlight is refracted horizontally — in this case, sundogs are seen.

As the sun rises higher, the rays passing through the crystals are increasingly skewed from the horizontal plane. Their angle of deviation increases and the sundogs move further from the sun. However, they always stay at the same altitude as the sun.

Sundogs are red-colored at the side nearest the sun. Farther out the colors grade through oranges to blue. However, the colors overlap considerably and so are muted, never pure or saturated. The colors of the sundog finally merge into the white of the parhelic circle (if the latter is visible).

It is theoretically possible to predict the forms of sundogs as would be seen on other planets and moons. Mars might have sundogs formed by both water-ice and CO2-ice. On the giant gas planets — Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune — other crystals form the clouds of ammonia, methane, and other substances that can produce halos with four or more sundogs.

Northern India shivers: Schools closed in Delhi till Sunday

January 6, 2011

Most homes in Delhi have no insulation and no central heating. Double glazing is almost unheard of. No doubt Pachauri’s home in the prestigious Golf Links area of Delhi is an exception. Current Delhi temperatures are running some 45°C lower than maximum summer temperatures. And from my week in Delhi during December 2010 I can testify that it is a mind and body numbing experience when temperatures inside the home are less than 10°C.

The claims that global warming is responsible and Pachauri’s IPCC must seem like bad jokes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12125207

A continuing cold snap has forced authorities in the Indian capital to keep schools closed till Sunday. Delhi has been badly hit by the cold, along with Indian-administered Kashmir, and the states of Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.

Temperatures have been hovering around 4°C after dipping to 3.7°C on Tuesday morning, the city’s lowest this winter. The death toll in the cold snap that has disrupted life across northern India has reportedly risen to 47.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/north-india-in-the-grip-of-intense-cold-wave-77387

The cold wave intensified further in Kashmir division, including Ladakh region, as the minimum temperature across the state dipped several degrees further, with Leh town freezing at -23 °C.
Leh recorded the coldest temperature in Kashmir division at -23 °C, which was 2.8 degrees lower than the minimum temperature recorded on Tuesday. The maximum temperature recorded in Leh was three degrees below the freezing point. In Srinagar city, the minimum temperature dipped by 1.3 deg C to settle at -5.4 °C. Kargil town witnessed an extremely cold night as the minimum temperature remained -18 °C for the second consecutive night. In Kashmir Valley, the tourist resort of Pahalgam recorded a temperature of – 11.6 °C which was nearly four degrees lower compared to Tuesday’s minimum of -7.7 °C.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/states/other-states/article1032332.ece

Daily wage labourers on their way to work braving the cold and windy condition in New Delhi even as the minimum temperature came below 34 degree the season's lowest, on 04, January 2011. Photo: V.V.Krishnan

Daily wage labourers on their way to work braving the cold and windy conditions in New Delhi even as the minimum temperature dropped below 3.4°C the season's lowest, on 04, January 2011. Photo: V.V.Krishnan

 

 

Frigid December 2010 was no local phenomenon

January 6, 2011

The frigid December of 2010 was widespread across the Northern Hemisphere and cannot be dismissed as just a local phenomenon.

Sweden: Coldest December in Sweden in 110 years: http://www.thelocal.se/31072/20101226/

UK: 2010 UK’s coldest December since records began: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12122497

Ireland: Met Eireann – coldest December on record: http://www.tv3.ie/article.php?article_id=50973&locID=1.2.&pagename=news

Germany: German Unemployment Unexpectedly Climbs in Coldest December for 40 Years: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/german-unemployment-unexpectedly-climbs-during-coldest-december-since-1969.html

USA

Illinois’ December was colder and had more snow than average: http://www.bnd.com/2011/01/05/1539495/december-was-colder-and-had-more.html

Virginia: Explaining the weather: December was a bitter one: http://www2.newsadvance.com/weather/2011/jan/04/explaining-weather-december-was-bitter-one-ar-752921/

Florida:

  1. December coldest on record: http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/local/east-volusia/2011/01/05/december-coldest-on-record.html
  2. Tallahassee marks coldest December on record: http://www.tallahassee.com/article/20110103/NEWS01/101030308/NWS-Tallahassee-marks-coldest-December-on-record
  3. N. Carolina: Asheville’s December was 2nd coldest: http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20110104/NEWS/301040038

Korea: Seoul Has Coldest December in 30 Years, Says Weather Bureau: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-27/seoul-has-coldest-december-in-30-years-says-weather-bureau.html

China:

Mass evacuations as China’s south battles ‘big freeze”: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12117729

Heavy snow grips northern China: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8228676/Heavy-snow-grips-northern-China.html

India:

Cold wave continues to grip North India: http://www.sify.com/news/cold-wave-continues-to-grip-north-india-news-national-lbfmEdjjaig.html

Bangalore is cold but the outskirts are getting colder: http://www.dnaindia.com/bangalore/report_bangalore-is-cold-but-the-outskirts-are-getting-colder_1483567

Chill in Calcutta: http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110105/jsp/calcutta/story_13392877.jsp

Australia:

NSW had its wettest year in half a century: http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/nsw-had-its-wettest-year-in-50-years-20110105-19fr7.html

AUSTRALIA has just experienced its wettest year since 1974 and its coolest year of the 21st century: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/last-year-australias-wettest-in-36-years-coldest-in-10/story-e6frg6nf-1225979674792

 

UK Met Office fears ridicule from public more than from their paymasters!

January 5, 2011

The UK Met Office is busy spinning the story that it actually did forecast the coldest December in the UK in a 100 years but secretly informed only the cabinet of the UK government about this in October 2010. Secret forecasts for fear of being wrong! After all kings of old also had their own private soothsayers to study the entrails but they were usually executed if they could not spin their way out of wrong forecasts. But the Met Office story does not stand up and their credibility is in tatters.

The UK Met office (as an institution) is one of the most ardent supporters of Global Warming dogma which is concerned with climate not weather. This can only be a “political” choice or an act of faith since climate trends are of little significance for their main task of weather forecasting. While weather is only a subset of climate I find it difficult to believe that poor weather forecasting can be a sound bottom-up basis for forecasting climate.

I say that climate trends are of little significance for detailed weather forecasting because climate change considers temperature changes of about one degree per century or less whereas the daily variation at any particular location is typically 10 to 15 degrees, seasonal variations at any location are around 40 – 50°C over a year and geographical variation around the globe is also upto 50 °C at any moment in time. Any climate trends of the order of 1°C per century are then immaterial for the immediate weather forecast.

At a cost of some £200 million per year they do forecast the weather with some accuracy for upto about 5 days ahead but are notoriously poor with their long range forecasts (but I note that even their short term forecasts are not more accurate – statistically – than the simple statement that “the weather tomorrow will be the same as today”). As recently as October 2010 the Met Office published weather maps showing warm expectations for November, December and January – but they insist they did not make any long range forecasts. We are told by Harrabin of the BBC that this was because of their sensitivity to the ridicule poured on them after their forecasts of a “barbecue summer” in 2009 and a mild 2009/2010 winter proved spectacularly wrong. But , we are assured by Harrabin, they actually did forecast – correctly – a cold and snowy winter but only informed the UK cabinet secretly.

Presumably any future ridicule or budget cuts by the cabinet of the UK Government for being wrong would be preferable to any public ridicule!!

In any event the cabinet did not do very much with this confidential information (perhaps it was anonymous) and all the counties were woefully unprepared.

Sources:

Manatees threatened by cold Florida waters – must be global warming

December 30, 2010

Manatees clearly are not too impressed by the effects of global warming and are swimming out of the chilly Gulf of Mexico waters and into warmer springs and power plant discharge canals. On Tuesday, more than 300 manatees floated into the outflow of Tampa Electric’s Big Bend Power Station reports Physorg.com:

Manatees paddle to warm water to escape Fla. chill (AP)

Manatees congregate in a canal where discharge from a nearby Florida Power & Light plant warms the water in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Tuesday, Dec. 28, 2010.

“It’s like a warm bathtub for them,” said Wendy Anastasiou, an environmental specialist at the power station’s manatee viewing center. “They come in here and hang out and loll around.”

Cold weather can weaken manatees’ immune systems and eventually kill them. State officials said 2010 has been a deadly year for the beloved animals: between Jan. 1 and Dec. 17, 246 manatees died from so-called “cold stress.” During the same time period in 2009, only 55 manatees died from the cold. In 2008, only 22 manatees succumbed to chilly temperatures.

Manatee deaths documented from Jan. 1 through Dec. 5 are nearly double the five-year average for that time period, according to Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission statistics.

“Obviously we’re very concerned as an agency about the unusually high number of manatee deaths this year,” said Wendy Quigley, a spokeswoman with the state-run Fish and Wildlife Research Institute in St. Petersburg.

A total of 699 manatees were found dead between Jan. 1 and Dec. 5; state officials say it’s likely the cold temperatures also contributed to many of the 203 deaths in the “undetermined” category and the 68 deaths of manatees whose bodies could not be recovered.

Quigley noted that the statistics don’t even include this week’s cold snap, which sent temperatures plummeting into the 30s in parts of South Florida overnight and into the teens in the central part of the state.

Tampa Bay and Gulf water temperatures are hovering around 50 degrees, said Anastasiou. When the water dips below 68, manatees seek warmer waters – usually springs or the power plant discharge canals. The water temperature in the power plant’s Big Bend canal ranges from about 65-75 degrees, Anastasiou said. Even though they’re huge animals, manatees are very cold sensitive……… During last year’s cold snap, some 329 manatees congregated at the Tampa Electric power station. In Broward County on Tuesday, some 50 manatees gathered in the outfall of a Florida Power and Light plant.

Yellow River freezes early

December 29, 2010

China’s Yellow River has frozen up to 677 kilometers in Inner Mongolia so far. The freezing is more typical of mid-to-late January. Preventive work has been organised for possible ice damage.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/photo/2010-12/29/c_13669452.htm

Dec. 29, 2010 Frozen Yellow River at Sanshenggong Water Project. (Xinhua/Li Yunping)

Recent strong cold air made Yellow River freeze up quickly in Shandong as the flow decreased in lower Yellow River.

December 29th 2010. Floating ice on Yellow River in Jinan, capital of east China's Shandong Province. (Xinhua/Guo Xulei)

Weather may not be climate but weather is a subset of climate !

December 27, 2010

The cold wave in India led to 4 deaths on 26th December 2010: image ndtv.com

This winter’s extremes are all due to Global Warming I hear!!

My incredulity at the arrogance of global warming dogma and its high priests is getting rather strained. But gullibility and greed remain inherent in the human condition.

First white Christmas in Atlanta since 1882, NCDC gets new snow record in their own backyard

Europe hit with coldest December in 100 years

Sweden in ‘coldest December in 100 years’

Coldest December since records began as temperatures plummet to minus 10C  bringing travel chaos across Britain

NSW hit by snow, wind, floods – and locusts

Wintry weather brings snow to Australia in midsummer

Icy highway causes traffic jam in Guangdong

Cold snap drops Beijing’s temperature to 10-year low

(Korea) Lowest temperatures in 30 years

Cold wave kills 4 in north India

North India reels under severe cold wave

Green hijack of the UK Met Office

December 26, 2010

Christopher Booker has an interesting article in The Sunday Telegraph describing how a supposedly science-based institution can be perverted by political dogma; in this case global warming dogma perverting the forecasts of the UK Met Office.

By far the biggest story of recent days, of course, has been the astonishing chaos inflicted, to a greater or lesser extent, on all of our lives by the fact that we are not only enjoying what is predicted to be the coldest December since records began in 1659, but also the harshest of three freezing winters in a row….. But central to all this – as the cry goes up: “Why wasn’t Britain better prepared?” – has been the bizarre role of the Met Office…… in these past three years the Met Office’s forecasting record has become a national joke. Ever since it predicted a summer warmer and drier than average in 2007 – followed by some of the worst floods in living memory – its forecasts have been so unerringly wrong that even the chief adviser to our Transport Secretary might have noticed.

The real question, however, is why has the Met Office become so astonishingly bad at doing the job for which it is paid nearly £200 million a year – in a way which has become so stupendously damaging to our country?

The answer is that in the past 20 years, as can be seen from its website, the Met Office has been hijacked from its proper role to become wholly subservient to its obsession with global warming. (At one time it even changed its name to the Met Office “for Weather and Climate Change”.) This all began when its then-director John Houghton became one of the world’s most influential promoters of the warmist gospel. He, more than anyone else, was responsible for setting up the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and remained at the top of it for 13 years. It was he who, in 1990, launched the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Change, closely linked to the Climatic Research Unit in East Anglia (CRU), at the centre of last year’s Climategate row, which showed how the little group of scientists at the heart of the IPCC had been prepared to bend their data and to suppress any dissent from warming orthodoxy.

The full article is here.