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Unknown Unknowns and the World Cup

June 28, 2010

After yesterdays glaring blunders by the referees, linesmen and 4th referees, first when England were denied a goal which every TV viewer around the world could see had crossed the goal-line and second when Argentina were awarded a goal when every TV viewer could see that Tevez was off-side, it is now going to be difficult for FIFA to resist bringing in the use of technology to assist referees’ decisions. It occurred to me that even though the final results seemed justified by the rest of the play, we cannot know what the impact of the correct decisions would have been. If England had been awarded their goal they would have started the second half level and in a different frame of mind. If Argentina’s goal had been disallowed and Mexico had scored first the players’ attitudes and the play could have changed in a fundamental way.

FIFA’s attitude to the use of technology borders on faith in a bygone age which no longer exists.

Like the proverbial ostriches – they do not wish to know what they do not know.

Thinking about what might have been, I was reminded of Donald Rumsfeld’s press conference at NATO HQ, Brussels  on June 6th, 2002., when as U.S. Secretary of Defence he said:

“The message is that there are no “knowns.” There are thing we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that’s basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns”.

There is actually a compelling music to the words but this quotation is often mocked especially by opponents of the US invasion of Iraq. I have quoted it disparagingly myself in discussions and presentations about the dangers of forecasting.

But of course what he said is rather profound. (more…)

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On comments to blogs and sticks and stones…

June 27, 2010

As a relatively recent blogger I find the nature of comments to posts is intriguing. So far less than 2% of the views have resulted in comments.

I categorise comments to blogs tentatively as:

  1. supportive – but with no other content
  2. supportive  with no relevant content but ingratiating
  3. supportive with relevant content
  4. supportive with an own agenda to propagate
  5. opposing and insulting with no content
  6. opposing with rational content but insulting
  7. opposing with rational content
  8. neutral but propagating own agenda

Types 5 and 6 are not very pleasant to read but perhaps they are better than no comment at all in that they represent people sufficiently engaged to comment. I think they cannot be fulfilling their own purposes  since every offensive remark  only seems to discount any content that might be present. Comments of Type 2 and 8 are the most irritating. Types 7 and 3 are the most appreciated.

Sticks and stones may break my bones but ………

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EU Idiocy: My “3 egg” omelette is to be banned

June 27, 2010

One would hope that idiots in Brussels would have better things to do.

Sorry — My mistake. They are only idiots after all…….

photo credit

“Shoppers are to be banned from buying eggs by the dozen under new regulations approved by the European Parliament. For the first time, eggs and other products such as oranges and bread rolls will be sold by weight instead of by the number contained in a packet. The new rules will mean that instead of packaging telling shoppers a box contains six eggs, it will show the weight in grams of the eggs inside, for example 372g. Or that a bag of white rolls has 322g inside instead of half a dozen. The rules will not allow both the weight and the quantity to be displayed”.


Breakfast in future will have to be a 106g omelette with a 52g bread roll!!!! But perhaps if we can get all hens to be the EU standard they can all begin producing eggs of a constant weight.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1289882/EU-ban-selling-eggs-dozen-Shopkeepers-fury-told-food-weighed-sold-kilo.html#ixzz0s26berUz

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Posted in Bureaucracy, Business, Philosophy | 1 Comment »

World Cup and Aquarium visitors: ‘Psychic’ octopus predicts Germany victory over England

June 26, 2010

‘Psychic’ octopus predicts Germany victory over England

With the German vacation season soon to start the Oberhausen Sea Life Aquarium is trying to drum up visitors.

They have discovered that their octopus, named Paul, is psychic and has a special interest in football.

Feeding Fjord

An octopus in a German aquarium who is said to be psychic has predicted the country’s football team will knock England out of the World Cup. When consulted, Paul the octopus chose a mussel from a jar with the German flag on it ahead of one in a similar jar bearing the cross of St George. The two-year-old cephalopod has a record of predicting past German results in this manner, his owners say. Paul has so far correctly predicted all of Germany’s results in South Africa. His keepers say he correctly predicted 80% of Germany’s results during the 2008 European Championship.

Paul is two years old and was born in England. Hopefully he does not suffer much from a conflict of loyalties and let us hope that Paul keeps getting his daily ration of mussels irrespective of the results from S. Africa.

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Cartels and Hypocrisy. But what happened to ethics?

June 24, 2010

Firms and private cartels get fined but when OPEC countries fix prices it’s OK and when the International Diamond Cartel operates it is found to be beneficial!!!

But ethics don’t get a mention.

EU fines bathroom cartel 622m euros

Seventeen bathroom equipment makers have been fined a total of 622m euros ($760; £510m) by the European Commission for price-fixing. The companies, including Ideal Standard of the US, which was fined 326m euros, formed a cartel for 12 years covering ceramics such as sinks, baths and taps.

The fines of five companies were reduced to a level they could afford. The Commission described the firms’ practices as “very serious infringements of the EU competition rules”.

However, it said its objective was not to force companies in difficulties out of business, and so reduced the fines on five companies. One, Masco of Italy, received full immunity as it was the first to provide information on the cartel.

Public cartels were also permitted in the United States during the Great Depression in the 1930s and continued to exist for some time after World War II in industries such as coal mining and oil production. Cartels have also played an extensive role in the German economy during the inter-war period. International commodity agreements covering products such as coffee, sugar, tin and more recently oil (OPEC) are examples of international cartels with publicly entailed agreements between different national governments.

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McCarthyism returns to the NAS

June 22, 2010

It seems that the high priests of global warming now believe that science is determined by who is more “authoritative”.

We have had “consensus science” and “settled science” and now we have “authoritative science”.

Perhaps we should just have a poll.

Climate change sceptic scientists ‘less prominent and authoritative’

The research indicates that scientists who blame human activity for global warming have published more relevant and influential papers than those who question man’s impact.

But the study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, has been dismissed as misleading by critics.

Opponents said that the paper divided scientists into artificial groups and did not consider a balanced spectrum of scientists.

They also pointed out that climate sceptics often struggled to get their papers accepted by journals, as they must first be reviewed and approved by climate change “believers”.

Judith Curry, a climate expert at the Georgia Institute of Technology – who was not part of the analysis – called the study “completely unconvincing” while John Christy of University of Alabama claimed he and other climate sceptics included in the survey were simply “being blacklisted” by colleagues.


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Developing language of Global Warming

June 21, 2010

alarmist –  a paranoid Warmist

AGW –  a religion propogating the homo-centric view of the universe and denying any influence of the sun

climate scientist  –  one who tricks successfully; a failed  statistician

climategate –  release on the internet of the inner workings of the hockeystick team

denialist  –  a heretical sceptic

Gore   –  a figurehead for AGW

hockeystick   – a Warmist religious symbol; a graph depicting the uncontrolled increase of any paramater

hockeystick team  – a small group of fanatical Warmists who created the hockeystick symbol by a trick

IPCC   – The High Church of AGW; primarily an advocacy group for the generation of funds for Warmist projects

Jones  – A Warmist priest and member of the UK Chapter of the hockeystick team

Mann  –  A Warmist priest and inventor of the trick

mann  –  n. a successful practitioner of a trick (not to be confused with a human person)

(mann.ism  n. a trick; mann.ick  adj. manic)

Pachauri  –  High Priest of the IPCC, a railway engineer who underwent a religious conversion to Warmism

peer-review – process for preventing publication by heretics  comparable to excommunication

sceptic – a scientist; a heretic

trick  –   n. data manipulation by exclusion; v. to selectively exclude data to achieve a desired result

settled science – as defined by the High Church

voodoo science – any  scientific endeavour following the scientific method but not conforming to to Warmism dogma

Warmist    –  one who adheres to the religion of  man-made Global Warming

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Posted in Philosophy, Science | 1 Comment »

The Ten Cannots by Boetcker (1916)

June 17, 2010
Seen on JoNova

  1. You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
  2. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
  3. You cannot help little men by tearing down big men.
  4. You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.
  5. You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
  6. You cannot establish sound security on borrowed money.
  7. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.
  8. You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn.
  9. You cannot build character and courage by destroying men’s initiative and independence.
  10. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they can and should do for themselves.

William John Henry Boetcker (1873 – 1962) was an American religious leader and influential public speaker.

From Wikipedia:

Born in Hamburg, Germany, he was ordained a Presbyterian minister soon after his arrival in the United States. As a young adult. Rev. Boetcker was raised in Erie, Pennsylvania and ordained in Brooklyn, New York. He quickly gained attention as an eloquent motivational speaker.  Rev. Boetcker is perhaps best remembered for his authorship of a pamphlet entitled The Ten Cannots. Originally published in 1916, it is often misattributed to Abraham Lincoln.

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World Cup Round-up: after Week 1 the vuvuzela wins

June 17, 2010

Every team has played once.

Germany – promising; England – predictable; Spain – disappointing; Brazil – still sleeping; Nigeria- no-hopers;  Holland- still-in; France- missing Zidane; Chile – Outsiders; Uruguay – impressive; Greece – in crisis.

The quality of the football has not lived up to the hype.

The greed of FIFA is breath-taking and FIFA is making an ass of itself.

Dutch women fans at the match against Denmark in Soccer City, Johannesburg, 14 June

The clear winner so far has been the vuvuzela.

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Journalists: The Purveyors of Doom

June 15, 2010

Why do journalists always feel it necessary to report science in alarmist terms?

Solar storms and the geomagnetic consequences are serious and the subject of serious study but such study is devalued when sensationalised by intrepid reporters from the outback.

Yesterday’s Daily Telegraph informed us that “Nasa warns solar flares from ‘huge space storm’ will cause devastation”. The reporter Andrew Hough goes on breathlessly  to explain that the “Daily Telegraph can disclose” that

National power grids could overheat and air travel severely disrupted while electronic items, navigation devices and major satellites could stop working after the Sun reaches its maximum power in a few years. Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013. In a new warning, Nasa said the super storm would hit like “a bolt of lightning” and could cause catastrophic consequences for the world’s health, emergency services and national security unless precautions are taken. “We know it is coming but we don’t know how bad it is going to be,” said Dr Richard Fisher, the director of Nasa’s Heliophysics division. Every 22 years the Sun’s magnetic energy cycle peaks while the number of sun spots – or flares – hits a maximum level every 11 years. Dr Fisher, a Nasa scientist for 20 years, said these two events would combine in 2013 to produce huge levels of radiation.

We should head for the hills !!!!

The 22 year Solar Cycle – the Babcock cycle was discovered by HW Babcock in 1961.

In 2007 NASA was predicting the Cycle 24 maximum for 2011 as a strong maximum or in 2012 as a weak maximum. By March 2009 the maximum was being forecast for May 2013 with the admission that “It turns out that none of our models were totally correct,” says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA’s lead representative on the panel. “The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way.”

The great 1859 storm– the “Carrington Event” – electrified transmission cables, set some papers on fire in a few telegraph offices, and produced exceptionally  bright Northern Lights. Some electrical disruption also occurred during storms in 1921, 1937, 1941 and 1958. On August 4, 1972 a solar flare knocked out long-distance telephone communication across Illinois. That event, in fact, caused AT&T to redesign its power system for transatlantic cables. A similar flare on March 13, 1989, provoked geomagnetic storms that disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Québec generating station in Canada. In  2005, a solar storm disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation signals for about 10 minutes.

There is a long way in nature from notable to  disruption to devastation and to catastrophe; but in journalism the distance seems exceedingly short.

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